/national-security

State Dept. human rights staffer quits over Biden’s Gaza policy - The Washington Post
▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/27/gaza-state-department-resignation-dissent

#Annelle_Sheline, 38, stepped down after a year as a foreign affairs officer in the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor

Les États-Unis ont discrètement approuvé des centaines de ventes d’armes à Israël depuis le 7 octobre
▻http://www.juif.org/diplomatie-moyen-orient/247256,les-tats-unis-ont-discretement-approuve-des-centaines-de-ventes.php

Les États-Unis ont discrètement approuvé et livré plus de 100 ventes militaires étrangères distinctes à Israël depuis le début de la guerre à Gaza le 7 octobre, a rapporté mercredi le Washington Post, citant les commentaires faits par des responsables américains aux membres du Congrès lors d’un récent briefing classifié.

Les ventes comprennent des milliers de munitions à guidage de précision, de bombes de petit diamètre, de destruction de bunkers, d’armes légères et d’autres aides meurtrières, selon le rapport.

Ce chiffre à trois chiffres, qui n’a pas encore été annoncé, est la dernière indication de l’implication massive de Washington dans le conflit.

Seules deux ventes militaires étrangères approuvées à Israël ont été rendues publiques depuis le début du conflit : pour 106 millions de dollars de munitions de chars et 147,5 millions de dollars de composants nécessaires à la fabrication d’obus de 155 mm. Ces ventes ont suscité un examen public parce que l’administration Biden a contourné le Congrès pour approuver les paquets en invoquant une autorité d’urgence.

Dans le cas des 100 autres transactions, selon le Washington Post, les transferts d’armes ont été traités sans aucun débat public, car chacun d’entre eux relevait d’un montant spécifique qui exige que le pouvoir exécutif en informe individuellement le Congrès.

[…]

Le porte-parole du département d’État, Matthew Miller, a déclaré que l’administration Biden avait « suivi les procédures spécifiées par le Congrès lui-même pour tenir les membres bien informés et les informe régulièrement, même lorsque la notification formelle n’est pas une exigence légale ».

Il a ajouté que les responsables américains ont « engagé le Congrès » sur les transferts d’armes vers Israël « plus de 200 fois » depuis l’attaque du Hamas contre Israël le 7 octobre et la guerre qui a suivi.

Le président Joe Biden a cherché à approuver un important programme d’aide à Israël, mais les démocrates et les républicains se sont affrontés sur la législation.

Le mois dernier, la Chambre des représentants n’a pas réussi à approuver un projet de loi républicain qui aurait fourni 17,6 milliards de dollars à Israël.

#génocide
#états-unis
#génocidaires
#genocide_joe

USAID’s Samantha Power confronted by staff over Biden’s Gaza policy - The Washington Post
▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/31/samantha-power-usaid-confronted-gaza

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/S242YVXE7AI6XCGFJ7LDQLCHZM.jpg&w=1440

Samantha Power, head of the U.S. Agency for International Development and a world-renowned scholar on genocide, was pointedly challenged by current and former USAID employees who during a public event Tuesday questioned her stance on the war in Gaza and complicity in the divisive U.S. policy.

“You wrote a book on genocide and you’re still working for the administration: You should resign and speak out,” said Agnieszka Sykes, a global health specialist who told The Washington Post she left her job at USAID late last week.

Le Hamas étudie une proposition de trêve à Gaza
▻https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2024/01/30/guerre-israel-hamas-le-point-sur-la-situation-pour-la-journee-de-mardi-30-ja

Après bientôt quatre mois de guerre, le chef en exil du Hamas, Ismaïl Haniyeh, installé au Qatar, a affirmé que son mouvement avait reçu une proposition de trêve avec Israël, résultat d’une réunion à Paris entre le directeur de la CIA, William Burns, et des responsables égyptiens, israéliens et qataris. « Le Hamas examine la proposition qui a circulé lors de la réunion » de Paris et prépare sa réponse, selon un communiqué à Gaza du mouvement, […]

[…]

Le premier ministre israélien, Benyamin Nétanyahou, a cependant affirmé qu’Israël ne « retirerait pas l’armée de la bande de Gaza » et ne libérerait pas « des milliers de terroristes » palestiniens, en échange d’otages.

Israel’s talk of expanding war to Lebanon alarms U.S. - The Washington Post
▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/07/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-blinken

An American intelligence assessment found that it would be difficult for Israel to succeed in a war against Hezbollah amid ongoing fighting in Gaza

[…]

U.S. officials are concerned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may see an expanded fight in Lebanon as key to his political survival amid domestic criticism of his government’s failure to prevent Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack, which killed an estimated 1,200 people and resulted in some 240 hostages being taken to Gaza.

[…]

The official emphasized, though, that Hezbollah is a “legitimate threat” to Israel and said the Jewish state has a right to defend itself.

Ukrainian military officer coordinated Nord Stream pipeline attack
▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/nordstream-bombing-ukraine-chervinsky

Roman Chervinsky, a decorated 48-year-old colonel who served in #Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, was the “coordinator” of the #Nord_Stream operation, people familiar with his role said, managing logistics and support for a six-person team that rented a sailboat under false identities and used deep-sea diving equipment to place explosive charges on the gas pipelines. On Sept. 26, 2022, three explosions caused massive leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which run from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. The attack left only one of the four gas links in the network intact as winter approached.

Chervinsky did not act alone and he did not plan the operation, according to the people familiar with his role, which has not been previously reported. The officer took orders from more senior Ukrainian officials, who ultimately reported to Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s highest-ranking military officer, said people familiar with how the operation was carried out. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive details about the bombing, which has strained diplomatic relations with Ukraine and drawn objections from U.S. officials.

[...]

Chervinsky is being held in a Kyiv jail on charges that he abused his power stemming from a plot to lure a Russian pilot to defect to Ukraine in July 2022. Authorities allege that Chervinsky, who was arrested in April, acted without permission and that the operation gave away the coordinates of a Ukrainian airfield, prompting a Russian rocket attack that killed a soldier and injured 17 others.

Hanushchak, who is no longer serving in the Special Operations Forces, has said publicly that the operation was approved by the Armed Forces, and declined to comment for this article.

Chervinsky has said he was not responsible for the Russian attack and that in trying to persuade the pilot to fly to Ukraine and hand over his aircraft, he was acting on orders. He calls his arrest and prosecution political retribution for his criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his administration. Chervinsky has said publicly that he suspects Andriy Yermak, one of Zelensky’s closest advisers, of spying for Russia. He has also accused the Zelensky administration of failing to sufficiently prepare the country for Russia’s invasion.

[...]

Chervinsky’s participation in the Nord Stream bombing contradicts Zelensky’s public denials that his country was involved. “I am president and I give orders accordingly,” Zelensky said in press interview in June, responding to a report by The Post that the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency had learned of Ukraine’s plans before the attack.

“Nothing of the sort has been done by Ukraine. I would never act that way,” Zelensky said.

But the Nord Stream operation was designed to keep Zelensky out of the loop, people familiar with the operation said.

“All of those involved in planning and execution reported directly to [chief of defense] Zaluzhnyy, so Zelensky wouldn’t have known about it,” according to intelligence reporting obtained by the CIA that was allegedly shared by Jack Teixeira, a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard, on the Discord chat platform. Officials in multiple countries have said privately they were confident that Zelensky didn’t personally approve the Nord Stream attack.

▻https://archive.ph/sgzm8

State Dept. official Josh Paul resigns over U.S.-Israel arms transfers - The Washington Post
By Michael Birnbaum | October 18, 2023
▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/10/18/state-department-josh-paul-resignation-israel

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/YWTY6IYSVCTLNSQCLEE23XYCVA.JPG&w=1440

A State Department official who worked on arms transfers to foreign powers resigned Wednesday over the Biden administration’s handling of the conflict in Israel and Gaza, declaring he could not support further U.S. military assistance to Israel and calling the administration’s response “an impulsive reaction” based on “intellectual bankruptcy.” (...)

U.S. moves to put Marines on commercial ships to stop Iranian seizures - The Washington Post
▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/03/armed-marines-iran-ship-seizures

The plan, if approved, would represent a remarkable escalation in the long-running feud between Washington and Tehran that could put their militaries in direct confrontation

Ukraine aims to sap Russia’s defenses, as U.S. urges a decisive breakthrough - The Washington Post
▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/18/ukraine-counter-offensive-weapons-tactics

Ukrainian commanders have yet to use the large-scale offensive tactics they have been trained on, as Kyiv says it needs more weapons to fight the war Washington wants

#expérimentation

U.S. had intelligence of detailed Ukrainian plan to attack Nord Stream pipeline
▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia

Three months before saboteurs bombed the #Nord_Stream natural gas pipeline, the Biden administration learned from a close ally that the Ukrainian military had planned a covert attack on the undersea network, using a small team of divers who reported directly to the commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Details about the plan, which have not been previously reported, were collected by a European intelligence service and shared with the CIA in June 2022. They provide some of the most specific evidence to date linking the government of #Ukraine to the eventual attack in the Baltic Sea, which U.S. and Western officials have called a brazen and dangerous act of sabotage on Europe’s energy infrastructure.

Investigators skeptical of yacht’s role in Nord Stream bombing
▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/03/nord-stream-bombing-yacht-andromeda

After saboteurs severely damaged the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines last September, German officials zeroed in on a rented sailboat that appeared to have taken part in planting explosive devices deep below the surface of the Baltic Sea.

But after months of investigation, law enforcement officials now suspect that the 50-foot yacht, the Andromeda, was probably not the only vessel used in the audacious attack. They also say the boat may have been a decoy, put to sea to distract from the true perpetrators, who remain at large, according to officials with knowledge of an investigation led by Germany’s attorney general. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to share details about the active inquiry, including doubts about the Andromeda’s role that haven’t been previously reported.

Officials hope that the true purpose of Andromeda in the deep-sea demolition will provide further insight in a high-stakes, international whodunnit that could eventually lead to those responsible and explain their motives, which remain unclear.

U.S. and European officials said they still don’t know for sure who is behind the underwater attack. But several said they shared German skepticism that a crew of six people on one sailboat laid the hundreds of pounds of explosives that disabled Nord Stream 1 and part of Nord Stream 2, a newer set of pipelines that wasn’t yet delivering gas to customers.

Experts noted that while it was theoretically possible to place the explosives on the pipeline by hand, even skilled divers would be challenged submerging more than 200 feet to the seabed and slowly rising to the surface to allow time for their bodies to decompress.

Such an operation would have taken multiple dives, exposing the Andromeda to detection from nearby ships. The mission would have been easier to hide and pull off using remotely piloted underwater vehicles or small submarines, said diving and salvage experts who have worked in the area of the explosion, which features rough seas and heavy shipping traffic.

The German investigation has determined that traces of “military-grade” explosives found on a table inside the boat’s cabin match the batch of explosives used on the pipeline. Several officials doubted that skilled saboteurs would leave such glaring evidence of their guilt behind. They wonder if the explosive traces — collected months after the rented boat was returned to its owners — were meant to falsely lead investigators to the Andromeda as the vessel used in the attack.

“The question is whether the story with the sailboat is something to distract or only part of the picture,” said one person with knowledge of the investigation.

Still others allow that the bombers may simply have been sloppy.

The German investigation has linked the yacht rental to a Polish company, which is in turn owned by a European company that’s connected to a prominent Ukrainian, fueling speculation from Berlin to Warsaw to Kyiv that a deep-pocketed partisan may have financed the operation. The identity of the Polish company and the Ukrainian individual, as well as his potential motive, remains unclear.

Based on the initial German findings, officials have been whispering about the potential involvement of the Polish or Ukrainian government in the attack. Poland arguably had a motive, some said, considering it has been among the most vocal critics of the Nord Stream project since it began in the late 1990s, warning that the pipelines, running from western Russia to Germany, would make Europe dependent on the Kremlin for energy.

Marcin Przydacz, the Polish president’s chief foreign policy adviser, urged caution about reaching conclusions from the initial evidence. He too shared the view that the Andromeda could be a red herring, but said it may have been planted by Moscow.

“This could be a Russian game to blame” Poland, Przydacz said in an interview at the presidential palace in Warsaw. “Poland had nothing to do with this [attack].”

Intelligence agencies have found no clear evidence that Russia, initially the prime suspect, was responsible.

Privately, former Polish government officials said that despite the country’s vehement opposition to Nord Stream and staunch support for arming Ukraine, they doubted that President Andrzej Duda would authorize an act that risked fracturing the alliance of nations that have come to Ukraine’s defense. Polish officials routinely refer to Ukraine’s conflict with Russia as “our war” and are fearful that if Russian President Vladimir Putin succeeds there, he would set his sights on Poland next.

Suspicion also has turned toward Ukraine as the culprit behind the Nord Stream bombings, based in part on intercepted communications of pro-Ukraine individuals discussing the possibility of carrying out an attack on the pipelines before the explosions, The Washington Post previously reported.

A senior Western security official with knowledge of the secretly gathered intelligence said the communications were only discovered after the bombing, when Western spy agencies began searching their records for insights.

“Ukraine absolutely did not participate in the attack on Nord Stream,” Mykhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, said last month, questioning why his country would conduct an operation that “destabilizes the region and will divert attention from the war, which is categorically not beneficial to us".

Those who suspect Ukrainian involvement said that disabling the pipeline could have been an effort to galvanize allied support in the face of Russian aggression, and particularly to strengthen German resolve. Germany had halted activated authorization for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline days before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Officials in the United States and Europe initially blamed Russia for the bombing. The country had already halted gas flows on Nord Stream 1, the older of the two sets of pipelines. That suggested that Moscow was willing to engage in a form of political blackmail with energy supplies.

One of the pair of Nord Stream 2 pipes remains intact. Both of the Nord Stream 1 lines were severed in the explosions on Sept. 26.

Some officials said that Ukrainian saboteurs or those from other countries acting in what they felt were Ukraine’s best interest could have attacked Nord Stream without Zelensky’s knowledge, arguing that he doesn’t have complete visibility into all the operations of his government or the military. That kind of plausible deniability could protect the celebrated leader and dampen the political fallout of a brazen attack tied to his country, these officials said.

No country has provided firm evidence tying the attacks to Ukraine, and a senior Biden administration official has cautioned that the intercepted communications of pro-Ukrainian actors are not conclusive.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned against making early conclusions as to who was responsible, suggesting that it might be a “false flag” operation, an idea echoed by other German politicians.

Roderich Kiesewetter, a German lawmaker who is part of a committee that was briefed last month by intelligence officials on the probe’s progress, said he believes that investigators have not yet communicated any results because the “evidence is far too thin.”

Kiesewetter said that unfounded speculation over the culprits could endanger cohesion in Europe. “We should continue to ask who had an interest in the detonation” and who “benefits from uncertainty and accusations,” he said.

As the Nord Stream mystery has turned into an international game of Clue, German investigators have scoured the Andromeda for leads. Officials first became interested in the vessel after the country’s domestic intelligence agency received a “very concrete tip” from a Western intelligence service that the boat may have been involved in the sabotage, according to a German security official, who declined to name the country that shared the information.

German authorities determined that the tip was credible and passed the information onto law enforcement officials, the official said.

The Andromeda left a virtual trail of breadcrumbs as it set off from a German port for the Baltic Sea, according to investigators.

Mola Yachting rented out the boat on Sept. 6 from Hohe Düne harbor in Warnemünde, a German port town on the Baltic, near Rostock, which is about 145 miles north of Berlin. The rental location is in plain sight of a huge vacation complex, home to a five-star hotel, seven restaurants and a high-end shopping area, with views across the harbor.

Investigators said the boat then traveled in a northeasterly direction, stopping in Hafendorf Wiek, or “Wiek harbor village,” on the northernmost part of Rügen island.

When a reporter from The Post visited in early March, the area had emptied out, save for the odd local dog-walker braving the biting temperatures. A half-dozen yachts bobbed in the water where the Andromeda is said to have been. “Investigators came [in] mid-January, and we helped them where we could,” said the harbor master, René Redmann.

“It wouldn’t be unusual for a boat setting off from Rostock with the destination of Bornholm to stop in Wiek,” Redmann noted, referring to a Danish island near the site of the Nord Stream explosion. Investigators believe that the Andromeda left Hafendorf Wiek and moored off the coast of the tiny island Christianso, near Bornholm.

A stop in Hafendork Wiek may have offered the Andromeda’s crew a final chance to stock up on supplies before heading to the explosion site.

“Lots of things are loaded on the boats … including groceries,” Redmann said. “Some people stop to tank up on fuel.” Redmann would not confirm that the Andromeda stopped there, citing the continuing law enforcement investigation. But he said he wouldn’t have any record of the crew’s identities, just the name of the boat, the number of people aboard and the type of vessel.

“Recording names of passengers is the job of the charter,” Redmann said.

Thomas Richter, co-owner of the charter company Mola, said that the search of the Andromeda took place in Dranske, on Rügen island, where the yacht was kept in winter storage. He declined to share further details.

For all the intrigue around who bombed the pipeline, some Western officials are not so eager to find out.

At gatherings of European and NATO policymakers, officials have settled into a rhythm, said one senior European diplomat: “Don’t talk about Nord Stream.” Leaders see little benefit from digging too deeply and finding an uncomfortable answer, the diplomat said, echoing sentiments of several peers in other countries who said they would rather not have to deal with the possibility that Ukraine or allies were involved.

Even if there were a clear culprit, it would not likely stop the provision of arms to Ukraine, diminish the level of anger with Russia or alter the strategy of the war, these officials argued. The attack happened months ago and allies have continued to commit more and heavier weapons to the fight, which faces a pivotal period in the next few months.

Since no country is yet ruled out from having carried out the attack, officials said they were loath to share suspicions that could accidentally anger a friendly government that might have had a hand in bombing Nord Stream.

In the absence of concrete clues, an awkward silence has prevailed.

“It’s like a corpse at a family gathering,” the European diplomat said, reaching for a grim analogy. Everyone can see there’s a body lying there, but pretends things are normal. “It’s better not to know.”

No conclusive evidence Russia is behind Nord Stream attack - The Washington Post
▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/12/21/russia-nord-stream-explosions

World leaders were quick to blame Moscow for explosions along the undersea natural gas pipelines. But some Western officials now doubt the Kremlin was responsible.

After explosions in late September severely damaged undersea pipelines built to carry natural gas from Russia to Europe, world leaders quickly blamed Moscow for a brazen and dangerous act of sabotage. With winter approaching, it appeared the Kremlin intended to strangle the flow of energy to millions across the continent, an act of “blackmail,” some leaders said, designed to threaten countries into withdrawing their financial and military support for Ukraine.

But now, after months of investigation, numerous officials privately say that Russia may not be to blame after all for the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines.
“There is no evidence at this point that Russia was behind the sabotage,” said one European official, echoing the assessment of 23 diplomatic and intelligence officials in nine countries interviewed in recent weeks.

Some went so far as to say they didn’t think Russia was responsible. Others who still consider Russia a prime suspect said positively attributing the attack — to any country — may be impossible.
In the months after the explosions, which resulted in what was probably one of the largest-ever single releases of methane gas, investigators have combed through debris and analyzed explosives residue recovered from the bed of the Baltic Sea. Seismologists have pinpointed the timing of three explosions on Sept. 26, which caused four leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines.
No one doubts that the damage was deliberate. An official with the German government, which is conducting its own investigation, said explosives appear to have been placed on the outside of the structures.
But even those with inside knowledge of the forensic details don’t conclusively tie Russia to the attack, officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share information about the progress of the investigation, some of which is based on classified intelligence.

“Forensics on an investigation like this are going to be exceedingly difficult,” said a senior U.S. State Department official.
The United States routinely intercepts the communications of Russian officials and military forces, a clandestine intelligence effort that helped accurately forecast Moscow’s February invasion of Ukraine. But so far, analysts have not heard or read statements from the Russian side taking credit or suggesting that they’re trying to cover up their involvement, officials said.

Attributing the attack has been challenging from the start. The first explosion occurred in the middle of the night to the southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm. Scientists detected two additional explosions more than 12 hours later to the northeast of the island.
Given the relatively shallow depth of the damaged pipelines — approximately 80 yards at the site of one explosion — a number of different actors could theoretically have pulled off the attack, possibly with the use of submersible drones or with the aid of surface ships, officials said. The list of suspects isn’t limited only to countries that possess manned submarines or deep-sea demolitions expertise.

The leaks occurred in the exclusive economic zones of Sweden and Denmark. European nations have been attempting to map which ships were in the region in the days before the explosions, in the hope of winnowing the field of suspects.
“We know that this amount of explosives has to be a state-level actor,” Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said in an interview this month. “It’s not just a single fisherman who decides to put the bomb there. It’s very professional.”
Regardless of the perpetrator, Haavisto said that for Finland, which isn’t a Nord Stream client, “The lesson learned is that it shows how vulnerable our energy network, our undersea cables, internet … are for all kinds of terrorists.”
Russia remains a key suspect, however, partly because of its recent history of bombing civilian infrastructure in Ukraine and propensity for unconventional warfare. It’s not such a leap to think that the Kremlin would attack Nord Stream, perhaps to undermine NATO resolve and peel off allies that depend on Russian energy sources, officials said.

But a handful of officials expressed regret that so many world leaders pointed the finger at Moscow without considering other countries, as well as extremist groups, that might have the capability and the motive to conduct the attack.
“The governments that waited to comment before drawing conclusions played this right,” said one European official.
Condemnation of Moscow was swift and widespread. On Sept. 30, four days after the explosions, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told the BBC it “seems” Russia was to blame. “It is highly unlikely that these incidents are coincidence,” she said.
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck also implied that Russia, which has consistently denied responsibility, was responsible for the explosions. “Russia saying ‘It wasn’t us’ is like saying ‘I’m not the thief,’” Habeck told reporters in early October.

An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the ruptures “a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression toward [the European Union].”
“No one on the European side of the ocean is thinking this is anything other than Russian sabotage,” a senior European environmental official told The Washington Post in September.
But as the investigation drags on, skeptics point out that Moscow had little to gain from damaging pipelines that fed Western Europe natural gas from Russia and generated billions of dollars in annual revenue. The Nord Stream projects had stirred controversy and debate for years because they yoked Germany and other European countries to Russian energy sources.
“The rationale that it was Russia [that attacked the pipelines] never made sense to me,” said one Western European official.

Nearly a month before the rupture, the Russian energy giant Gazprom stopped flows on Nord Stream 1, hours after the Group of Seven industrialized nations announced a forthcoming price cap on Russian oil, a move intended to put a dent in the Kremlin’s treasury. During Putin’s long stretch in office, the Kremlin has used energy as an instrument of political and economic leverage, employing the threat of cutoffs to bully countries into going along with its goals, officials said. It didn’t make sense that Russia would abandon that leverage.
Germany had halted final authorization of Nord Stream 2 just days before Russian forces invaded Ukraine. But the pipeline was intact and had already been pumped full with 300 million cubic meters of natural gas to ready it for operations.
Putin, in defiant speech, threatens Western gas and grain supplies
European and U.S. officials who continue to believe that Russia is the most likely culprit say it had at least one plausible motive: Attacking Nord Stream 1 and 2, which weren’t generating any revenue to fill Russian coffers, demonstrated that pipelines, cables and other undersea infrastructure were vulnerable and that the countries that supported Ukraine risked paying a terrible price.

Haavisto noted that Finland has taken steps to strengthen infrastructure security since the explosions. Germany and Norway have asked NATO to coordinate efforts to protect critical infrastructure such as communication lines in the North Sea and gas infrastructure.
“But it’s at the same time true that we cannot control all the pipelines, all the cables, all the time, 24/7,” Haavisto said. “You have to be prepared. If something happens you have to think, where are the alternatives?”
The war prompted European countries to build up stockpiles of alternative energy, making them less dependent on Russian sources. But the Nord Stream attack has left many governments uneasy about the lengths to which Russia or other actors might go.
Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said his government was waiting for the country’s independent prosecutor’s office to complete its investigation into the explosions before reaching a conclusion. Sweden, along with Denmark, increased its naval patrols right after the attack.

“We have spoken about [the explosions] as part of the view that the security situation in the northern part of Europe has deteriorated following Russia’s aggression on Ukraine, with all the implications that it has,” Billstrom said in an interview this month.
The prospect that the explosions may never be definitively attributed is unsettling for nations like Norway, which has 9,000 kilometers (5,500 miles) of undersea gas pipelines to Europe.
A Norwegian official said Norway is attempting to strengthen security around its own pipelines and broader critical infrastructure. It is investing in surveillance; working with Britain, France and Germany to intensify naval patrols; and trying to find ways to keep oil and gas flowing in the event of another attack.
Norway is also investigating the appearance of unidentified aerial drones around its oil and gas facilities around the time of the Nord Stream attacks.
“It’s not a good thing,” the official said, of the possibility that the Nord Stream explosions may remain unsolved. “Whoever did it may get away with it.”

U.S. privately asks Ukraine to show it’s open to negotiate with Russia - The Washington Post
▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/05/ukraine-russia-peace-negotiations/?bezuggrd=NWL

November 5, 2022 by Missy Ryan, John Hudson and Paul Sonne - The encouragement is aimed not at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, but ensuring it maintains a moral high ground in the eyes of its international backers

The Biden administration is privately encouraging Ukraine’s leaders to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia and drop their public refusal to engage in peace talks unless President Vladimir Putin is removed from power, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The request by American officials is not aimed at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, these people said. Rather, they called it a calculated attempt to ensure the government in Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come.

The discussions illustrate how complex the Biden administration’s position on Ukraine has become, as U.S. officials publicly vow to support Kyiv with massive sums of aid “for as long as it takes” while hoping for a resolution to the conflict that over the past eight months has taken a punishing toll on the world economy and triggered fears of nuclear war.

While U.S. officials share their Ukrainian counterparts’ assessment that Putin, for now, isn’t serious about negotiations, they acknowledge that President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ban on talks with him has generated concern in parts of Europe, Africa and Latin America, where the war’s disruptive effects on the availability and cost of food and fuel are felt most sharply.

“Ukraine fatigue is a real thing for some of our partners,” said one U.S. official who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations between Washington and Kyiv.

Serhiy Nikiforov, a spokesman for Zelensky, did not respond to a request for comment.

In the United States, polls show eroding support among Republicans for continuing to finance Ukraine’s military at current levels, suggesting the White House may face resistance following Tuesday’s midterm elections as it seeks to continue a security assistance program that has delivered Ukraine the largest such annual sum since the end of the Cold War.

On Nov. 3, Defense Secretary Llyod Austin said Ukraine is capable of retaking Kherson, a strategic southern city occupied by Russian forces. (Video: Reuters, Photo: AFP/Getty Images/Reuters)

In a trip to Kyiv on Friday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the United States supported a just and lasting peace for Ukraine and said U.S. support would continue regardless of domestic politics. “We fully intend to ensure that the resources are there as necessary and that we’ll get votes from both sides of the aisle to make that happen,” he said during a briefing.

Eagerness for a potential resolution to the war has intensified as Ukrainian forces recapture occupied territory, pushing closer to areas prized by Putin. Those begin with Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, and include cities along the Azov Sea that now provide him a “land bridge” to the Ukrainian peninsula. Zelensky has vowed to fight for every inch of Ukrainian territory.

Veteran diplomat Alexander Vershbow, who served as U.S. ambassador to Russia and deputy secretary general of NATO, said the United States could not afford to be completely “agnostic” about how and when the war is concluded, given the U.S. interest in ensuring European security and deterring further Kremlin aggression beyond Russia’s borders.

“If the conditions become more propitious for negotiations, I don’t think the administration is going to be passive,” Vershbow said. “But it is ultimately the Ukrainians doing the fighting, so we’ve got to be careful not to second-guess them.”

While Zelensky laid out proposals for a negotiated peace in the weeks following Putin’s Feb. 24 invasion, including Ukrainian neutrality and a return of areas occupied by Russia since that date, Ukrainian officials have hardened their stance in recent months.

In late September, following Putin’s annexation of four additional Ukrainian regions in the east and in the south, Zelensky issued a decree declaring it “impossible” to negotiate with the Russian leader. “We will negotiate with the new president,” he said in a video address.

That shift has been fueled by systematic atrocities in areas under Russian control, including rape and torture, along with regular airstrikes on Kyiv and other cities, and the Kremlin’s annexation decree.

Ukrainians have responded with outrage when foreigners have suggested they yield areas of their country as part of a peace deal, as they did last month when billionaire Elon Musk, who has helped supply Ukraine’s military with satellite communication devices, announced a proposal on Twitter that could allow Russia to cement its control of parts of Ukraine via referendum and give the Kremlin Crimea.

In recent weeks Ukrainian criticism of proposed concessions has grown more pointed, as officials decry “useful idiots” in the West whom they’ve accused of serving Kremlin interests.

“If Russia wins, we will get a period of chaos: flowering of tyranny, wars, genocides, nuclear races,” presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said Friday. “Any ‘concessions’ to Putin today — a deal with the Devil. You won’t like its price.”

Ukrainian officials point out that a 2015 peace deal in the country’s eastern Donbas region — where Moscow backed a separatist campaign — only provided Russia time before Putin launched his full-scale invasion this year. They question why any new peace deal would be different, arguing that the only way Russia will be prevented from returning for further attacks is vanquishing its military on the battlefield.

Russia, facing a poor position on the battlefield, has proposed negotiations but in the past has proved unwilling to accept much other than Ukrainian capitulation.

“Cynically, Russia and its Western supporters are holding out an olive branch. Please do not be fooled: An aggressor cannot be a peacemaker,” Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential administration, wrote in a recent op-ed published by The Washington Post.

Ukrainian officials also question how they can conduct negotiations with Russian leaders who fundamentally believe in Moscow’s right to hegemony over Kyiv.

Putin has continued to undermine the notion of a sovereign and independent Ukraine, including in remarks last month when he once again asserted that Russians and Ukrainians were one people, and argued that Russia could be “the only real and serious guarantor of Ukraine’s statehood, sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

While Western officials also hold profound skepticism of Russia’s aims, they have chafed at Ukraine’s harsh public rebukes as Kyiv remains entirely dependent on Western assistance. Swiping at donors and ruling out talks could hurt Kyiv in the long run, officials say.

The maximalist remarks on both sides have increased global fears of a years-long conflict spanning the life of Russia’s 70-year-old leader, whose grip on power has only tightened in recent years. Already the war has deepened global economic woes, helping to send energy prices soaring for European consumers and causing a surge in commodity prices that worsened hunger in nations including Somalia, Yemen and Afghanistan.

In the United States, rising inflation partially linked to the war has stiffened head winds for President Biden and his party ahead of the Nov. 8 midterms and raised new questions about the future of U.S. security assistance, which has amounted to $18.2 billion since the war began. According to a poll published Nov. 3 by the Wall Street Journal, 48 percent of Republicans said the United States was doing “too much” to support Ukraine, up from 6 percent in March.

Progressives within the Democratic Party are calling for diplomacy to avoid a protracted war, releasing but later retracting a letter calling on Biden to redouble efforts to seek “a realistic framework” for a halt to the fighting.

Speaking in Kyiv, Sullivan said the war could end easily. “Russia chose to start it,” he said. “Russia could choose to end it by ceasing its attack on Ukraine, ceasing its occupation of Ukraine, and that’s precisely what it should do from our perspective.”

The concerns about a longer conflict are particularly salient in nations that were already hesitant to throw their weight behind the U.S.-led coalition in support of Ukraine, either because of ties with Moscow or reluctance to fall in line behind Washington.

South Africa abstained from a recent U.N. vote that condemned Russia’s annexation decrees, saying the world must instead focus on facilitating a cease-fire and political resolution. Brazil’s new president-elect, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has said Zelensky is as responsible for the war as Putin.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has tried to maintain good relations with Moscow and Kyiv, offered assistance on peace talks in a call with Zelensky last month. He was spurned by the Ukrainian leader.

Zelensky told him Ukraine would not conduct any negotiations with Putin but said Ukraine was “committed to peaceful settlement through dialogue,” according to a statement released by Zelensky’s office. The statement noted that Russia had deliberately undermined efforts at dialogue.

Despite Ukrainian leaders’ refusal to talk to Putin and their vow to fight to retake all of Ukraine, U.S. officials say they believe that Zelensky would probably endorse negotiations and eventually accept concessions, as he suggested he would early in the war. They believe that Kyiv is attempting to lock in as many military gains as it can before winter sets in, when there might be a window for diplomacy.

Zelensky faces the challenge of appealing both to a domestic constituency that has suffered immensely at the hands of Russian invaders and a foreign audience providing his forces with the weapons they need to fight. To motivate Ukrainians domestically, Zelensky has promoted victory rather than settlement and become a symbol of defiance that has motivated Ukrainian forces on the battlefield.

While members of the Group of Seven industrialized bloc of nations seemingly threw their weight behind a Ukrainian vision of victory last month, endorsing a plan for a “just peace” including potential Russian reparation payments and security guarantees for Ukraine, some of those same countries see a potential turning point if Ukrainian forces approach Crimea.

Reports of a Russian withdrawal from the southern city of Kherson have raised the question of whether Ukrainian forces could eventually march on the strategic peninsula, which U.S. and NATO officials believe Putin views differently than other areas of Ukraine under Russian control, and what a likely all-out fight for Crimea would mean for Kyiv’s backers in the West.

Not only has Crimea been under direct Russian control for longer than areas seized since February, but it has long been the site of a Russian naval base and is home to many retired Russian military personnel.

Illustrating Russia’s elevation of Crimea, the Kremlin responded to an explosion last month on a bridge linking the region to mainland Russia — a symbol of Moscow’s grip of the peninsula — by launching a barrage of missiles on Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, ending a long period of peace in the capital.

In the meantime, Ukrainian leaders continue to telegraph their intention to pursue total victory, not only to their beleaguered citizens but also to Moscow.

Zelensky told an interviewer on Wednesday that the first thing he would do after Ukraine prevails in the war would be to visit a recaptured Crimea. “I really want to see the sea,” he said.

▻https://www.stimson.org/2022/u-s-security-assistance-to-ukraine-breaks-all-precedents

▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/31/republican-split-on-ukraine-aid/?itid=lk_interstitial_manual_15

▻https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/21/zelenskyy-ukraine-russia-ap-00058201

▻https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1

▻https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/6792022-44249

▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/03/kherson-kakhovka-water-crimea-battle/?itid=lk_interstitial_manual_27

▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/20/andriy-yermak-russia-aggressor-not-peacemaker/?itid=lk_inline_manual_37

▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/25/ukraine-pessure-liberals-negotiation-putin/?itid=lk_interstitial_manual_45

▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/25/democrats-ukraine-letter/?itid=lk_inline_manual_49

▻https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-lula-says-zelenskiy-as-responsible-putin-ukraine-war-2022-05-04

▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/05/06/zelensky-demands-ukraine-biden-funding/?itid=lk_interstitial_manual_56

▻https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/10/11/g7-statement-on-ukraine-11-october-2022

▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/09/putin-crimea-bridge-attack-ukraine/?itid=lk_inline_manual_63

▻https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1587820560687501318?s=20&t=Lm2RlYtSmj6a0ewttMg7BQ

#USA #Russie #Ukraine #OTAN #guerre #propagande

U.S. privately asks Ukraine to show it’s open to negotiate with Russia
▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/05/ukraine-russia-peace-negotiations

The Biden administration is privately encouraging #Ukraine’s leaders to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia and drop their public refusal to engage in peace talks unless President Vladimir Putin is removed from power, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The request by American officials is not aimed at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, these people said. Rather, they called it a calculated attempt to ensure the government in Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come.

U.S. races to track American arms in heat of Ukraine war
▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/01/us-weapons-ukraine-oversight

U.S. monitors have conducted in-person inspections for only about 10 percent of the 22,000 U.S.-provided weapons sent to #Ukraine that require special oversight.

[...] Last week, the administration unveiled a plan to prevent weapons diversion in Eastern Europe. With nearly $18 billion of U.S. military aid provided since February alone, the Biden administration’s aid lifeline to Ukraine is the largest such sum since the Cold War ended.

[...] Officials acknowledged that when the war erupted, they had no blueprint for tracking weapons in a conventional conflict like the combat in Ukraine. U.S. personnel are unable to venture into the vast stretches of the country occupied by Russian forces or experiencing active fighting.

Suivi minimal, donc, et plein d’#armes ne sont pas soumises à un special oversight.

Road to war: U.S. struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion
▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/ukraine-road-to-war

Presented with the new intelligence and analysis at the October [2021] briefing, Biden “basically had two reactions,” Sullivan said. First, to try to deter Putin, they “needed to send somebody to Moscow to sit with the Russians at a senior level and tell them: ‘If you do this, these will be the consequences.’ ”

Second, they needed to brief allies on the U.S. intelligence and bring them on board with what the administration believed should be a unified and severe posture of threatened sanctions against Russia, reinforcement and expansion of NATO defenses, and assistance for #Ukraine.

Burns was dispatched to Moscow and Haines to NATO headquarters in Brussels.

With scant options in Ukraine, U.S. and allies prepare for long war - The Washington Post
▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/06/17/long-war-ukraine

The Biden administration hopes that the new weaponry, in addition to successive waves of sanctions and Russia’s diplomatic isolation, will make a difference in an eventual negotiated conclusion to the war, potentially diminishing Putin’s willingness to keep up the fight, the official said.

Even if that reality does not materialize immediately, officials have described the stakes of ensuring Russia cannot swallow up Ukraine — an outcome officials believe could embolden Putin to invade other neighbors or even strike out at NATO members — as so high that the administration is willing to countenance even a global recession and mounting hunger.

Already the war, compounding the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, has plunged the world economy, now expected to suffer years of low growth, into renewed crisis. It has also deepened a global food emergency as the fighting pushes up prices of basic goods and cripples Ukraine’s grain exports — which typically feed hundreds of millions of people a year — pushing some 44 million people closer to starvation, according to the World Food Program.

Ukraine : La face cachée des choses (Deuxième partie) Vladimir Caller
▻https://www.investigaction.net/fr/ukraine-la-face-cachee-des-choses-deuxieme-partie

Le traitement de l’information de la guerre entre la Russie et l’Ukraine risque, par son immédiateté, de nous faire perdre de vue l’énormité de son importance, de sa signification politique et de ses conséquences prévisibles. A ce propos, il ne nous semble pas exagéré de dire que le moment historique que nous vivons est comparable à, par exemple, celui de la chute du mur de Berlin ou 11 septembre.

https://www.investigaction.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/guerre-ukraine-Manhhai-CC-2.0-640x436.jpg

Des objectifs bien précis
– Reprendre le contrôle hégémonique d’une Europe durablement affaiblie et ce, sur le plan de l’énergie, la défense, la finance internationale ; dans ce cadre faire de l’Allemagne et du germanisme anti slave, la nouvelle référence militaire européenne.

– Affaiblir la Russie à l’extrême, organiser un « Afghanistan-bis » sur des terres ukrainiennes et, comme voie de conséquence, installer un « Eltsine-bis » au Kremlin

– Renforcer très lourdement le négoce militaire et son association avec les médias (le nouveau complexe militaro-médiatique). ([2])

– Tout ceci, en préalable de la cible chinoise (le quatrième temps).

Si les grandes lignes de cette stratégie étaient dûment programmées, il nous semble que ses mentors ne s’attendaient pas à une riposte russe si brutale ; en tout cas, pas de cette dimension. Cette riposte a changé la donne et précipité le timing des plans américains. Le soutien à l’Ukraine, à son intégrité territoriale, à sa politique d’alliances, est devenu un sujet mineur. Le volet politico-diplomatique de la guerre elle-même est devenu obsolète. Lorsque Biden traite Poutine de « criminel de guerre » ou de « voyou » ce n’est pas une saute d’humeur ; c’est une fin de non-recevoir à toute négociation, à toute discussion. Que la Russie saigne, c’est la (seule) priorité.

Dans un entretien, passé inaperçu, à la NPR, le principal réseau de radiodiffusion public des États-Unis le 16 Mars, le secrétaire d’état Antony Blinken précisait les objectifs de sa diplomatie. Pour lui, cette guerre était l’occasion de changements, de grands changements. « L’un de ces changements est que les Européens s’intéressent de très près, et non seulement s’intéressent, mais commencent à agir sur la sécurité énergétique et cessent de se nourrir du pétrole et du gaz russes. Ce serait un changement majeur » .([3])

Ursula von der Leyen, Charles Michel, Emmanuel Macron, semblent avoir bien entendu l’injonction en signant sans tarder un accord avec les États-Unis, lors du sommet européen des 24 et 25 mars, pour la livraison de 15 milliards de mètres cube de gaz naturel liquéfié (GNL) avec la perspective d’arriver à 50 milliards pour la fin de la décennie. A noter que la satisfaction vis-à-vis de cet accord n’est pas venue des marchands du GNL mais des acheteurs : « J’aimerais dire au peuple américain la reconnaissance de l’Europe pour leur soutien indéfectible », a salué Ursula von der Leyen, qui a dit voir en cet accord « une garantie de la sécurité et de l’indépendance énergétique de l’UE ».([4]) De son côté, dans l’élan de cet accord, l’Allemagne a débloqué 1,5 milliards d’euros pour acheter du GNL ; notamment aux Etats-Unis.

L’acquiescence de l’UE envers les directives de la Maison Blanche ne se limitent pas aux directives sur le gaz. Elle anticipe même les propositions punitives de Washington et, pour y parvenir, n’hésite pas à violer ses propres directives. Ainsi, l’UE sanctionnait la banque centrale russe gelant ses dépôts avant même les États-Unis et décidait l’envoi des armes à l’Ukraine en totale contradiction avec les propres dispositions du Conseil européen qui régissent le contrôle des exportations militaires ; règles dans lesquelles il est bien précisé que « Les États membres refusent l’autorisation d’exportation de technologie ou d’équipements militaires susceptibles de provoquer ou de prolonger des conflits armés ou d’aggraver des tensions ou des conflits existants dans le pays de destination finale. »([5])

Concernant Moscou, Blinken assure que le changement est déjà en marche : « L’une des choses que nous faisons est de priver la Russie de la technologie dont elle a besoin pour moderniser son pays, pour moderniser les industries clés – défense et aérospatiale, son secteur de haute technologie, l’exploration énergétique. Toutes ces choses vont connaître des effets profonds et pas seulement immédiats. Ils vont augmenter et s’accroître au fil du temps […] Tout ce qui est fait est, en fait, irréversible ». Cette guerre multi-sectorielle a donc vocation à durer. Pour qu’il ne reste pas de doutes, le secrétaire d’État estimait nécessaire d’avouer que « …le simple fait d’arrêter l’invasion de l’Ukraine pourrait ne pas suffire pour annuler les sanctions contre la Russie ».

Au bonheur des armuriers
Nous disions ci-dessus que la réaction russe avait surpris les Occidentaux, par sa nature et son envergure, le quotidien Le Figaro rapportait que, soucieux de son budget, Boris Johnson avait prévu, peu avant le déclenchement du conflit, de tailler dans les effectifs et matériels destinés à la défense.([6]) En France, le président de la Cour de comptes Pierre Moscovici prévoyait « réduire la voilure » du budget des armées dans son rapport sur « La loi de programmation militaire (LPM) 2019-2025 et les capacités des armées ». « Il va devoir revoir sa copie car la guerre en Ukraine a balayé certaines convictions des rapporteurs »  ; estimait le journal français La Tribune. ([7]) Aux USA même, au début de l’année, une publication spécialisée dans le domaine de la défense commentait : « Le secteur est confronté à une période de stagnation ou de diminution des budgets du Pentagone, alors même que le ministère de la Défense s’efforce de faire face à des conditions difficiles dues à la montée de la Chine ».([8])

Le cas le plus marquant fut, pourtant, celui de l’Allemagne. Le 12 février le ministre des Finances, Christian Lidner du Parti libéral démocrate, bien connu pour son attachement à la rigueur budgétaire, s’était adressé au Bundestag insistant sur l’urgence de réduire les dépenses militaires en dépit des pressions de l’OTAN pour qu’elles atteignent, au minimum, le 2 % du PIB du pays. Cela dit, le climat martial autour du dossier ukrainien, poussé par les écolos, était déjà bien animé, pendant que le premier ministre Olaf Scholz semblait résister à ces pressions. C’est alors que le magazine Der Spiegel , incité par l’intervention russe, titrait en une dans son édition du 26.02 : « Ayez honte Monsieur Scholz », l’accusant d’être trop mou et « d’empêcher l’Union européenne d’agir contre le régime de Poutine ».([9]) Le lendemain, Scholz décidait, devant le parlement, d’attribuer un montant de 100 000 milliards d’euros au budget de la défense. Pour le journal français Les Echos « La révolution copernicienne de l’Allemagne ne fait que commencer ».([10])

Et elle prend de l’envol si l’on en juge par les décisions qui suivirent. Le 27 mars, la présidente de la commission de la défense au Bundestag, Andrea Schwarz, annonçait que son pays se proposait d’acheter le système de missiles israéliens « Arrow », plus connu sous le nom de « Dome de fer » lorsqu’il sert à se protéger des missiles venant du Hezbollah ou du Hamas. « Nous devons mieux nous protéger contre la menace russe. Pour cela, nous avons besoin rapidement d’un bouclier antimissiles à l’échelle de l’Allemagne« , expliqua-t-elle dans le Bild. Et d’ajouter, « Nous pouvons tendre le Dôme de fer au-dessus des pays voisins. Nous jouerions ainsi un rôle clé pour la sécurité de l’Europe » . Selon le journal, le système coûterait 2 milliards d’euros et pourrait être opérationnel dès 2025 depuis trois sites en Allemagne. ([11]) Jean Monnet en rêvait, l’alliance de gaullistes et de communistes l’avait empêché en 1954, le réarmement allemand est à l’ordre du jour. Et ce n’est que le commencement. Des F-35 furtifs sont déjà commandés en masse aux USA ; des drones armés à Israël et des projets, si chers à Emmanuel Macron, de chars et avions de chasse mutualisés sont plus que jamais d’actualité.

L’autre guerre
Une autre guerre non moins importante se joue dans la communication où excelle l’ancien comédien Zelinsky élu sur un programme de pacification et devenu faucon parmi les faucons du projet d’éterniser la guerre et, si possible, de l’étendre. Maître dans l’art de l’ambiguïté, un jour il propose, demande, des négociations et lorsqu’elles sont entamés, il exige la fermeture du ciel ukrainien par l’OTAN. Il suggère des concessions, y compris territoriales pour toute de suite accuser la Russie de génocide et son président d’être un criminel de guerre et ce en parfaite concertation avec Biden et les grandes corporations médiatiques mondiales. Sa campagne de communication est particulièrement efficace « Ils sont vraiment excellents en stratcom – médias, info ops, et aussi psy-ops, a déclaré un haut responsable de l’OTAN au  Washington Post. « J’espère que les pays occidentaux prendront exemple sur eux ». ([12]) La production, notamment vers l’extérieur, est assuré par l’agence Internews  financée conjointement par le gouvernement américain et diverses ONG’s dont la fondation Gates, The Open Society de George Soros et The National Endowment for Democracy.

Nous sommes ainsi face à un climat « d’union sacrée » autour de Zelensky et son équipe. Impensable de toucher un mot à propos de ses nombreux faits de corruption aggravée révélées par les Pandora papers. Si vous osez le faire, vous devenez ipso-facto un « agent de Poutine ». Encore mieux : surtout ne pas parler de « nazification » puisque, c’est le « vox médiatique » qui sanctionne : Zelensky est lui-même juif. Comme si le fait d’être juif vaccinait contre des compromissions. Cette campagne est si efficace que l’idée s’est installée que des formations comme Pravy Sektor, Patriotes d’Ukraine et Azov seraient très marginales car leur dimension serait fort modeste. Concernant Azov, le plus engagé parmi ces groupes sur le plan militaire, les ‘spécialistes’ des moyens de communication avancent le fait qu’ils « ne seraient que 4 000 dans une population militaire de 200 000 membres » ; insignifiants, donc. Or ce chiffre semble tiré de Wikipédia de manière un peu désinvolte, nos commentateurs oubliant que nous sommes déjà en 2020. En effet, ce site précise que « Le bataillon d’Azov était composé d’environ 800 volontaires fin 2014, mais vit ses effectifs rapidement augmenter portant le nombre de combattants potentiels à plus de 4 000 à la fin de 2016 ».([13]) Si en 2 ans, (2014-16) Azov grandit de 500 % on peut estimer que « The International Institute for Strategic Studies », organisme américain spécialisé dans la chose militaire, n’exagère pas lorsqu’il estime que les forces paramilitaires ukrainiennes (dont Azov est, de loin, la plus importante) représentent 102 000 membres pour un effectif total de l’armée nationale ukrainienne de 145 000 membres.([14])

D’autres commentateurs insistent sur leur prétendue insignifiance en raison du fait qu’ils n’ont pas d’élus au parlement. Or le problème n’est pas qu’ils soient ou non au parlement mais qu’ils sont parfaitement bien installés et dans les forces armées et dans le ministère de l’intérieur. Et là, c’est-à-dire au cœur de la guerre, ils sont en position d’orienter la ligne politique générale et ce, en parfaite concertation avec le Pentagone, l’OTAN (et la caution de l’UE) avec même des projections internationales. Dans une enquête très fouillée, le magazine américain TIME, très peu suspect de « complotisme gauchiste », rapporte les déclarations d’Ali Soufan, un ancien cadre de très haut niveau du FBI, expert en questions de terrorisme, à propos du mouvement Azov. Selon Soufan, « Azov occupe une place centrale dans un réseau de groupes extrémistes qui s’étend de la Californie à la Nouvelle-Zélande en passant par l’Europe ». Et faisant référence aux talents de recrutement de l’organisation, l’expert soutient que « plus de 17 000 combattants étrangers sont venus en Ukraine au cours des six dernières années en provenance de 50 pays. » . Intriguée, la rédaction du magazine est allée sur place à Kiev pour interroger Olena Semenyaka, la responsable de questions internationales du mouvement, à propos des objectifs de son organisation. Cette dernière a répondu : « la mission d’Azov était de former une coalition à travers le monde occidental, dans le but ultime de prendre le pouvoir dans toute l’Europe. » ([15]) TIME précise qu’en octobre 2019, 40 membres du Congrès avaient signé une lettre appelant, sans succès, le Département d’État américain à désigner Azov comme une organisation terroriste étrangère. 

Plus récemment, le quotidien israélien Jerusalem Post, publiait un rapport de l’Institut d’études européennes, russes et eurasiennes (IERES) de l’Université George Washington qui révélait que « le Canada, les États-Unis, la France et le Royaume-Uni ont contribué à la formation de membres des organisations d’extrême droite au sein des académies militaires ukrainiennes » . Le rapport soulignait la tolérance dont ces groupes bénéficiaient des directions de ces académies. Situation qui avait provoqué la colère des Amis du Centre Simon Wiesenthal (FSWC) du Canada qui faisait état de leur mécontentement dans un communiqué. « .. Il est inacceptable que nos forces armées encouragent les groupes néonazis en Ukraine par le biais de la formation de nos forces armées. »([16])

Cette présence militaire, ce prosélytisme sans limites ni frontières du néofascisme kiévien ne se limite pas aux casernes. Dès le lendemain du coup d’état de 2014 parrainé par Laurent Fabius, Frank-Walter Steinmeier (actuel président de l’Allemagne) et Victoria Nuland, le poste du ministre de l’intérieur, le plus sensible et stratégique du nouveau gouvernement « démocratique et européiste » fut attribué à Arsen Avakov, le créateur d’Azov. Question d’urgence ? Pas d’autre choix pour le moment ? Désignation passagère ? Pas du tout ! Avakov resta ministre 8 ans jusqu’au mois de juillet 2021 dûment confirmé d’ailleurs, malgré de vives oppositions y compris du grand rabbin de Kiev, par monsieur Zelensky. Trop visible pour rester à côté du Monsieur propre Zelenzky, il dut quitter ce poste si visible pour devenir conseiller spécial du ministère de la défense.

Les évidences, les démonstrations de la très large mainmise de l’extrême droite néonazie sur les forces militaires et paramilitaires du pays et sur une très large partie de l’opinion publique ukrainienne, notamment sur sa jeunesse sont incontestables Pourtant, dans un exercice pervers de manipulation de l’opinion, le système fait tout pour l’ignorer, pour le cacher. Ainsi, finalement ce n’est pas Poutine qui ‘dénazifie’ l’Ukraine mais bien l’UE, la Maison Blanche, les médias…

En attendant le vrai morceau
Dans cette guerre qui se joue (pour le moment) à trois : USA-Russie-UE (la Chine est, cette fois, en stay behind), on peut estimer que les gagnants seront les deux géants, les USA et la Chine avec comme perdants leurs partenaires mineurs, l’Europe et la Russie. Cela dit, les recompositions en cours avec l’entrain militaire de la Russie, sa disposition à « passer à l’acte » comme nouvelle donne, ajoutées à la fixation sur la Chine, ne peuvent que conforter plus que jamais le négoce militaire. Présentant le nouveau budget de la défense pour 2023 (Budget que l’administration Biden estime à 773 milliards de dollars soit le niveau le plus élevé de l’histoire américaine), la revue Foreign Policy, titrait ce 28 mars, « L’invasion de l’Ukraine par la Russie a obligé le Pentagone à revoir son approche centrée sur la Chine. »([17])

De con côté, avec ce franc parler si américain, le Pentagone publiait une fiche informative de la NGS (National Defense Strategie) soulignant la permanence de la menace chinoise d’où le fait que ces efforts visent à « agir de toute urgence pour soutenir et renforcer la dissuasion, la République Populaire de Chine (RPC) étant notre concurrent stratégique le plus important et le défi majeur pour le département« . La fiche présente ainsi les priorités du Pentagone « La défense de la patrie, face à la menace multi-domaine croissante que représente la RPC.[…] Dissuader toute agression, en donnant la priorité au défi posé par la RPC dans la région indopacifique, puis au défi posé par la Russie en Europe. »([18])

Cette agressivité langagière (et budgétaire) n’empêchait pas messieurs Blinken et Sullivan d’entreprendre moult tentatives pour essayer d’aligner la Chine contre la Russie dans le cadre des sanctions en cours. Ce fut une secrétaire d’un programme de TV chinois qui, en manière de réponse, résuma le mieux la démarche étasunienne : « Pourrais-tu m’aider à combattre ton ami pour que je puisse m’occuper de toi plus tard ? »[19]

Post scriptum 09.04.2022
Je viens de lire un long article du Wall Street Journal (ici en annexe) informant d’une proposition faite par l’allemand Scholz à Zelensky, « une dernière tentative », le 19 février, quelques jours avant l’entrée de troupes russes en Ukraine. L’Allemand aurait déclaré à Zelensky que l’Ukraine devrait renoncer à ses aspirations envers l’OTAN et déclarer sa neutralité dans le contexte d’une convention sur la sécurité européenne garantie conjointement par les Etats-Unis et la Russie. Demande que Zelensky aurait refusée arguant que l’on « ne peut pas faire confiance à Poutine et que la plupart des Ukrainiens souhaitent adhérer à l’OTAN ».([20])

Cette révélation me semble précieuse pour évaluer la personnalité du président ukrainien, sa capacité à décider seul (contrairement à l’idée qu’il serait soumis à des influences…) et sa responsabilité dans le drame que vit son pays.
Source : Le Drapeau Rouge ▻https://www.ledrapeaurouge.be
Voir la première partie de l’article. ►https://www.investigaction.net/fr/ukraine-la-face-cachee-des-choses-premiere-partie
Photo : Manhhai (CC 2.0)

Notes :
[1] Accords officialisant la reconnaissance d’Israël par des pays arabes qui jusqu’ici s’y refusaient. Le dossier ukrainien, si riche et complexe, ne nous a laisse le temps de traiter ce sujet. Nous y reviendrons.

[2]La formule complexe militaro-industriel devenant un peu obsolète ; outre que pour ce qui est des USA l’importance de la composante industrielle n’est plus la même que du temps du Général Eisenhower,
auteur de la formule, le facteur médiatique est, par contre, devenu incontournable pour la gestion de guerres.

[3]Blinken, ▻https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1086835380?t=1648549050349 March 16, 2022 

[4]▻https://lechiffredaffaires.dz/15-milliards-de-m3-de-gnl-americain-pour-leurope

[5]Actes pris en application du traité UE ; position commune 2008/944/PESC du 8.12.2008 ▻https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/FR/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32008E0944&from=FR

[6]▻https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/royaume-uni-a-l-heure-du-global-britain-boris-johnson-somme-d-en-faire-enco

[7]▻https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-finance/industrie/aeronautique-defense/armees-la-cour-des-comptes-propose-de-reduire-la-voilure-dans-un-contexte-

[8]National security for insiders by insiders ▻https://warontherocks.com/2021/01/13the-u-s-defense-industry-in-a-new-era

[9]▻https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/deutschlands-halbherzige-sanktionspolitik-schaemen-sie-sich-herr-scholz-komm 

[10]▻https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/editos-analyses/la-revolution-copernicienne-de-lallemagne-ne-fait-que-commencer-1393884

[11]▻https://www.msn.com/fr-be/actualite/other/l-allemagne-envisage-de-se-doter-d-un-bouclier-antimissiles-%C3%A0-2-milliards-d-euros/ar-AAVxQvZ?ocid=winp1taskbar

[12]▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/16/ukraine-zelensky-information-war Les sigles « Ops » et « Psy-ops » correspondent aux opérations de propagande et publicité dans le premier cas et à celles visant à manipuler les informations ; susciter compassion du public, etc. dans le second.

[13]▻https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%A9giment_Azov

[14]Ukraine’s military strength ▻https://graphics.reuters.com/RUSSIA-UKRAINE/dwpkrkwkgvm 26.1.22

[15]« Like, Share, Recruit : How a White-Supremacist Militia Uses Facebook to Radicalize and Train New Members” ▻https://time.com/5926750/azov-far-right-movement-facebook January, 7,2021

[16]By Jerusalem Post staff ; October 19, 2021 ▻https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/western-countries-training-far-right-extremists-in-ukraine-report-682411

[17]▻https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/28/pentagon-defense-strategy-russia-ukraine-war.

[18] US Department of Defense Fact Sheet : 2022 National Defense Strategy ▻https://media.defense.gov/2022/Mar/28/2002964702/-1/-1/1/NDS-FACT-SHEET.PDF

[19] China Global Television Network — CGTN LIU Xin 刘欣 (LiuXininBeijing) March 19, 2022

[20] ▻https://www.wsj.com/articles/vladimir-putins-20-year-march-to-war-in-ukraineand-how-the-west-mishandled-it-1 

#otan #usa #etats-unis #ukraine #azov #néonazis #néofascisme #ue #union_européenne #Russie #guerre #crimée #otan #réfugiés #énergie #géopolitique #france #politique #poutine #allemagne

In first since Ukraine invasion, Pentagon chief speaks with Russian counterpart
▻https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-defense-chief-urged-immediate-ukraine-ceasefire-call-with-russian-counte

A U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the call, which was requested by Austin, lasted about an hour but did not solve any specific issues or lead to direct changes in what the Russians are doing in #Ukraine.

The official described the tone of the call as “professional.”

Russia’s TASS news agency quoted the Russian defence ministry as saying that the call happened “at the initiative of the American side”.

“Topical issues of international security were discussed, including the situation in Ukraine,” TASS said, quoting the ministry.

The United States and Russia have established a hotline since the invasion - which Moscow calls a “special military operation” - to prevent miscalculation and any widening of the conflict.

U.S. Intelligence Is Helping Ukraine Kill Russian Generals, Officials Say
▻https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/04/us/politics/russia-generals-killed-ukraine.html

The United States has provided intelligence about Russian units that has allowed Ukrainians to target and kill many of the Russian generals who have died in action in the #Ukraine war, according to senior American officials.

Ukrainian officials said they have killed approximately 12 generals on the front lines, a number that has astonished military analysts.

[...] “Clearly, we want the Russians to know on some level that we are helping the Ukrainians to this extent, and we will continue to do so,” said Evelyn Farkas, the former top Defense Department official for Russia and Ukraine in the Obama administration. “We will give them everything they need to win, and we’re not afraid of Vladimir Putin’s reaction to that. We won’t be self-deterred."