• Guerre au Proche-Orient : à #Beyrouth, #Mona_Fawaz résiste par la #cartographie

    Professeure d’urbanisme et cofondatrice du #Beirut_Urban_Lab, la chercheuse cartographie le conflit à la frontière entre le #Liban et Israël. Et montre ainsi le « déséquilibre profond » entre les attaques visant le territoire libanais et celles ciblant le sol israélien.

    « Je suis entrée dans le centre de recherche ; tous mes collègues avaient les yeux rivés sur les nouvelles, l’air horrifié. C’est là que nous nous sommes dit que nous ne pouvions pas simplement regarder : il fallait agir, et le faire du mieux possible », se rappelle Mona Fawaz, professeure d’urbanisme à l’Université américaine de Beyrouth (AUB) et cofondatrice du Beirut Urban Lab, un laboratoire de recherche interdisciplinaire créé en 2018 et spécialisé dans les questions d’#urbanisme et d’#inclusivité.

    Lundi 4 décembre, dans ce centre de recherche logé à l’AUB, près de deux mois après l’attaque sans précédent du groupe militant palestinien Hamas en Israël et le début des bombardements intensifs de l’armée israélienne sur la bande de Gaza, elle revoit l’élan impérieux qui a alors saisi ses collègues du Beirut Urban Lab, celui de cartographier, documenter et analyser.

    « Certains ont commencé à cartographier les dommages à #Gaza à partir de #photographies_aériennes. Personnellement, j’étais intéressée par la dimension régionale du conflit, afin de montrer comment le projet colonial israélien a déstabilisé l’ensemble de la zone », y compris le Liban.

    La frontière sud du pays est en effet le théâtre d’affrontements violents depuis le 8 octobre entre #Israël et des groupes alliés au #Hamas emmenés par le #Hezbollah, une puissante milice soutenue par l’#Iran. Qualifiés de « #front_de_pression » par le chef du Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, les #combats sur le #front_libanais, qui visent notamment à détourner l’effort militaire israélien contre Gaza, ont tué au moins 107 personnes du côté libanais, dont 14 civils. Du côté israélien, six soldats et trois civils ont été tués.

    C’est ainsi que l’initiative « Cartographier l’escalade de violence à la frontière sud du Liban » est née. Le projet répertorie le nombre de #frappes quotidiennes et leur distance moyenne par rapport à la frontière depuis le début du conflit, en s’appuyant sur les données collectées par l’ONG Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (Acled : https://acleddata.com). Sur son écran d’ordinateur, Mona Fawaz montre une #carte_interactive, une des seules en son genre, qui révèle un déséquilibre saisissant entre les attaques revendiquées par Israël, au nombre de 985 depuis le début du conflit, et celles menées depuis le Liban : 270 frappes répertoriées sur le sol israélien.

    L’occasion pour Mona Fawaz de questionner les expressions répétées dans les médias, qui façonnent la compréhension du conflit sans remettre en cause leurs présupposés. « On parle de tirs transfrontaliers, par exemple, alors même qu’il y a un déséquilibre profond entre les deux parties impliquées », souligne-t-elle. « Une distorsion médiatique » que la chercheuse dénonce aussi dans la couverture de l’offensive israélienne contre l’enclave palestinienne.

    Une « lutte partagée » avec les Palestiniens

    Pour Mona Fawaz, il est important de documenter un conflit dont les racines vont au-delà des affrontements présents. « La création de l’État d’Israël en 1948 a provoqué une perturbation majeure au sud du Liban, brisant [ses] liens historiques, sociaux, politiques et économiques » avec la Galilée, explique-t-elle.

    Des bouleversements que la chercheuse, originaire du village de Tibnine, dans le sud du pays, connaît bien, puisqu’ils ont marqué son histoire familiale et personnelle. Elle explique que la proximité entre les populations était telle qu’au cours de la « #Nakba » (la « catastrophe », en arabe) en 1948 – l’exode massif de plus de 700 000 Palestinien·nes après la création de l’État d’Israël –, sa mère a été évacuée de son village aux côtés de Palestinien·nes chassés de leurs terres. « Les déplacés ne savaient pas où s’arrêteraient les Israéliens, raconte-t-elle. Dans cette région du Liban, on a grandi sans sentir de différences avec les Palestiniens : il y a une lutte partagée entre nous. »

    En 1982, Mona Fawaz, qui avait alors à peine 9 ans, vit plusieurs mois dans son village sous l’occupation de l’armée israélienne, qui a envahi le pays en pleine guerre civile (1975-1990) afin de chasser du Liban l’Organisation de libération de la Palestine (OLP). Elle se souvient des scènes d’#humiliation, des crosses des fusils israéliens défonçant le mobilier chez son grand-père. « Ce n’est rien par rapport à ce que Gaza vit, mais il y a définitivement un effet d’association pour moi avec cette période », explique-t-elle.

    Dans le petit pays multiconfessionnel et extrêmement polarisé qu’est le Liban, l’expérience de la chercheuse n’est cependant pas générale. Si une partie des Libanais·es, notamment dans le sud, est marquée par la mémoire des guerres contre Israël et de l’occupation encore relativement récente de la région – les troupes israéliennes se sont retirées en 2000 du Sud-Liban –, une autre maintient une défiance tenace contre la #résistance_palestinienne au Liban, notamment tenue responsable de la guerre civile.

    Celle qui a ensuite étudié au Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), à Boston (États-Unis), pour y faire son doctorat en aménagement urbain à la fin des années 1990, explique ensuite qu’il a fallu des années aux États-Unis pour réaliser que « même le soldat qui est entré dans notre maison avait été conditionné pour commettre des atrocités ». Si l’ouverture à d’autres réalités est une étape indispensable pour construire la paix, c’est aussi un « luxe », reconnaît la chercheuse, qui semble hors de portée aujourd’hui. « L’horreur des massacres à Gaza a clos toute possibilité d’un avenir juste et pacifique », soupire-t-elle.

    Le tournant de la guerre de 2006

    Peu après son retour au Liban en 2004, Mona Fawaz se concentre sur les questions de l’informalité et de la justice sociale. Un événement majeur vient bouleverser ses recherches : le conflit israélo-libanais de 2006. Les combats entre Israël et le Hezbollah ont causé la mort de plus de 1 200 personnes du côté libanais, principalement des civil·es, en seulement un mois de combat.

    Du côté israélien, plus de 160 personnes, principalement des militaires, ont été tuées. Cette guerre va être une expérience fondatrice pour le Beirut Urban Lab. C’est à ce moment que ses quatre cofondateurs, Mona Fawaz, Ahmad Gharbieh, Howayda Al-Harithy et Mona Harb, chercheurs et chercheuses à l’AUB, commencent leurs premières collaborations sur une série de projets visant à analyser l’#impact de la guerre. L’initiative actuelle de cartographie s’inscrit en continuité directe avec les cartes quotidiennes produites notamment par #Ahmad_Gharbieh en 2006. « Le but était de rendre visible au monde entier le caractère asymétrique et violent des attaques israéliennes contre le Liban », explique Mona Fawaz.

    Dans les années qui suivent, les chercheurs participent à plusieurs projets en commun, notamment sur la militarisation de l’#espace_public, le rôle des réfugié·es en tant que créateurs de la ville ou la #privatisation des #biens_publics_urbains, avec pour objectif de faire de la « donnée un bien public », explique Mona Fawaz, dans un « pays où la collectivité n’existe pas ». « Nos recherches s’inscrivent toujours en réponse à la réalité dans laquelle nous vivons », ajoute-t-elle. Une réalité qui, aujourd’hui dans la région, est de nouveau envahie par la guerre et les destructions.

    https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/international/121223/guerre-au-proche-orient-beyrouth-mona-fawaz-resiste-par-la-cartographie

    #résistance

    ping @visionscarto @reka

    • #Beirut_Urban_Lab

      The Beirut Urban Lab is a collaborative and interdisciplinary research space. The Lab produces scholarship on urbanization by documenting and analyzing ongoing transformation processes in Lebanon and its region’s natural and built environments. It intervenes as an interlocutor and contributor to academic debates about historical and contemporary urbanization from its position in the Global South. We work towards materializing our vision of an ecosystem of change empowered by critical inquiry and engaged research, and driven by committed urban citizens and collectives aspiring to just, inclusive, and viable cities.

      https://beiruturbanlab.com

      –—

      Mapping Escalation Along Lebanon’s Southern Border Since October 7

      Since October 7, the Middle East has occupied center stage in global media attention. Already rife with uncertainty, subjected to episodic bouts of violence, and severely affected by an ongoing project of ethnic cleansing for 75 years in Historic Palestine, our region is again bearing the weight of global, regional, and local violence. As we witness genocide unfolding and forceful population transfers in Gaza, along with an intensification of settler attacks in the West Bank and Jerusalem and the silencing of Palestinians everywhere, the conflict is also taking critical regional dimensions.

      As part of its effort to contribute to more just tomorrows through the production and dissemination of knowledge, the Beirut Urban Lab is producing a series of maps that document and provide analytical insights to the unfolding events. Our first intervention comes at a time in which bombs are raining on South Lebanon. Titled Escalation along Lebanon’s Southern Border since October 7, the platform monitors military activity between the Israeli Armed Forces and Lebanese factions. Two indicators reflect the varying intensity of the conflict: the number of daily strikes and the average distance of strikes from the border.

      The map uses data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) crisis mapping project, which draws upon local reporting to build its dataset. Since ACLED updates their dataset on Mondays, site visitors can expect updates to our mapping and analysis to be released on Tuesday afternoons. Please refer to ACLED’s methodology for questions about data sources and collection.

      As of November 14, the frequency and distribution of strikes reveals a clear asymmetry, with northward aggression far outweighing strikes by Lebanese factions. The dataset also indicates a clear escalation, with the number of incidents increasing day by day, particularly on the Lebanese side of the border.

      We see this contribution as an extension of our previous experiences in mapping conflicts in Lebanon and the region, specifically the 2006 Israeli assault on Lebanon.

      https://beiruturbanlab.com/en/Details/1958/escalation-along-lebanon%E2%80%99s-southern-border-since-october-7
      #cartographie_radicale #cartographie_critique #visualisationi

  • Guerre en Ukraine : cartographie inédite des attaques de l’armée russe contre les civils
    https://disclose.ngo/fr/article/guerre-ukraine-cartographie-inedite-des-attaques-russes-contre-les-civils

    Depuis un an, les soldats de Vladimir Poutine terrorisent la population civile ukrainienne. Exécutions arbitraires, tortures, viols, mais aussi attaques contre des écoles, des hôpitaux ou des infrastructures énergétiques… Disclose a recensé et cartographié près de 6 000 événements susceptibles d’être qualifiés de crimes de guerre par la Cour pénale internationale. Lire l’article

  • A Year of Racial Justice Protests: Key Trends in Demonstrations Supporting the BLM Movement | ACLED
    https://acleddata.com/2021/05/25/a-year-of-racial-justice-protests-key-trends-in-demonstrations-supporting

    On 25 May 2020, Minneapolis police killed George Floyd, an unarmed Black man, sparking a massive wave of protests across the United States. According to new ACLED data, which are now updated from the start of last year to the present, more than 11,000 demonstrations associated with the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement have been reported in nearly 3,000 distinct locations all around the country. While the vast majority have remained peaceful, they have faced violent intervention from the far right, as well as a disproportionately heavy-handed crackdown by law enforcement. Although demonstration rates have declined significantly since the heights of summer 2020, events have continued well into 2021, recently rising again around new cases of police brutality and the conviction of former police officer Derek Chauvin for Floyd’s murder. Opponents of the movement have seized the moment to introduce over 100 “anti-protest” bills in over 30 states, with new legislation increasing the penalties for protesting and even granting immunity for drivers who strike demonstrators with their vehicles.

    Now with comprehensive data coverage of the past year of unrest, this report builds on initial research published in September 2020 in the wake of the first round of demonstrations. It maps the protest movement through the beginning of 2021, examines how it has intersected with far-right extremism, and unpacks the aggressive government response over the course of the year since Floyd’s death.

  • Le Kirghizistan accuse le Tadjikistan d’avoir violé la trêve
    https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/05/01/le-kirghizistan-accuse-le-tadjikistan-d-avoir-viole-la-treve_6078761_3210.ht

    Les combats qui ont eu lieu cette semaine ont fait au moins 33 morts et 120 blessés selon les autorités kirghizes, tandis que le Tadjikistan, pays autoritaire et fermé, n’a pour l’instant annoncé aucune perte.

    Le Kirghizistan a accusé, samedi 1er mai, le Tadjikistan d’avoir violé le cessez-le-feu convenu l’avant-veille, jeudi 29 avril, après les pires affrontements frontaliers entre ces deux pays d’Asie centrale depuis leur indépendance en 1991. Les combats qui ont eu lieu cette semaine ont fait au moins 33 morts et 120 blessés selon les autorités kirghizes, tandis que le Tadjikistan, pays autoritaire et fermé, n’a pour l’instant annoncé aucune perte.

    Le Conseil national de sécurité du Kirghizistan a affirmé que l’armée tadjike avait ouvert le feu sur des habitations dans le district de Leilik, dans la région frontalière de Batken. Selon cette source, les habitants de la zone ont été évacués avant le début des tirs vers 13 heures (9 heures à Paris). Plus tôt dans la journée, Bichkek a accusé son voisin tadjik d’avoir bloqué une route stratégique reliant un territoire kirghiz au reste du pays.

    Combat pour la gestion de l’eau
    Le Kirghizistan a décrété deux jours de deuil national, samedi 1er mai et dimanche 2 mai, après les violences qui ont éclaté jeudi 29 avril autour de plusieurs zones frontalières, dont l’enclave tadjike de Voroukh. Plus d’un tiers de la frontière kirghizo-tadjike est contesté.

    De larges portions de frontière n’ont pas été démarquées en Asie centrale depuis la dislocation de l’URSS en 1991, provoquant de fréquentes tensions ethniques accentuées par le combat pour la gestion de l’eau, notamment autour de la fertile vallée de la Ferghana, également partagée avec l’Ouzbékistan.

    • WP en dit plus long

      Conflit de 2021 entre le Kirghizistan et le Tadjikistan — Wikipédia
      https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conflit_de_2021_entre_le_Kirghizistan_et_le_Tadjikistan

      Raisons
      Les combats se déroulent sur la section contestée de la frontière entre le Kirghizistan et le Tadjikistan. D’après les cartes de 1924-1927 et de 1989, le point de distribution d’eau de Golovny, qui est situé dans le cours supérieur de la rivière Isfara, appartient au Tadjikistan. Le point de distribution est utilisé pour l’irrigation et l’approvisionnement en eau dans les régions frontalières du Tadjikistan, du Kirghizistan et de l’Ouzbékistan.

      Une autre raison du conflit est le mécontentement de la population locale face à l’installation de caméras de surveillance. Après des querelles à ce sujet, les combats ont commencé avec la participation de militaires des deux pays.

      Chronologie
      Le 28 avril, les forces du Tadjikistan et du Kirghizistan à la frontière entre les deux pays près de Kök-Tash ont déclenché des affrontements, faisant quatre morts et des dizaines de blessés3.

      Au 29 avril, au moins 41 personnes ont été tuées des deux côtés et environ 10 000 personnes ont été évacuées de la zone où se déroulaient les combats4. Le même jour, les ministres des Affaires étrangères du Tadjikistan et du Kirghizistan ont convenu d’un cessez-le-feu à la frontière.

      Le 30 avril, le Tadjikistan a reconnu le cessez-le-feu dans une déclaration publiée par son service d’information, mais l’État n’a accepté aucune victime ni aucun dommage résultant de la violence. Le 1er mai, le président kirghize Sadyr Japarov a signé un décret qui déclare un deuil national de deux jours.

    • un article du 22/04/2021 (une semaine avant…) sur les conflits frontaliers entre Tadjikistan et Kirghizistan

      Everlasting or Ever-Changing ? Violence Along the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Border | ACLED
      https://acleddata.com/2020/06/08/everlasting-or-ever-changing-violence-along-the-kyrgyzstan-tajikistan-bor

      In the volatile region of the Ferghana valley, where the borders of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan converge (see map below), violent confrontations between locals and state forces have been a longstanding concern. Disputes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are particularly frequent as almost half of the 971-kilometer-long border territory remains contested, creating challenges for local populations hoping to address infrastructural and economic issues in the region. Disagreements over the connection of Tajikistan’s fertile Vorukh exclave to the mainland only adds to the disorder.

      apparemment, les affrontements se déroulent à la frontière la plus occidentale du Kirghizistan

    • Conclusion
      Resolving the persistent border conflict requires an approach that grapples with the deeper political realities of the region. The conflict’s intransigence may be partly linked to the political traditions in both countries. Tajikistan’s restrictions on independent media prevent public mobilization around the issue, ensuring that any political action taken to resolve the dispute remains symbolic. Border violence, even when it results in casualties, is not always covered by Tajik media (Eurasianet, 18 September 2019). This may play a role in limiting nationwide awareness of the situation and obstructing grassroots political pressure to address it, further isolating Vorukh residents from the rest of the country. In Kyrgyzstan, some experts contend that the lack of coordination between the central and local governments has undermined efforts to maintain peace and security. This problem has been aggravated by alleged corruption within local government in the border regions (Asia Plus, 18 September 2019). Meanwhile, leaders of both countries have been criticized for underplaying the seriousness of the issue, as public acknowledgement may result in loss of support for both presidents (IWPR, 19 September 2019).

      At the same time, border communities demand inclusion in these processes (CABAR, 30 March 2020). Many experts suggest that the most viable approach would involve bringing civil society, local residents, and government actors together to work collaboratively on a joint path forward, particularly in light of the insufficient military and political response thus far (CABAR, 8 April 2020; UN Women, 20 May 2020). In the absence of a more inclusive approach, the future of the Kyrgyz-Tajik borderland will likely remain uncertain, and the political violence landscape will likely remain the same.

    • Tajik citizens captured Kyrgyz houses in Leilek and took head of Kyrgyz village hostage - AKIpress News Agency
      https://akipress.com/news:657579:Tajik_citizens_captured_Kyrgyz_houses_in_Leilek_and_took_head_

      Tajik military vehicles are driving through the village of Borborduk in the Jany-Jer rural district of the Leilek district of Batken region, the press service of the Batken region police confirmed on April 30

  • Mocimboa da Praia : Key Mozambique port ’seized by IS’ - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53756692

    C’est passé sous les radars apparemment, mais la situation au Mozambique se dégrade et devient très préoccupante

    https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1632/idt2/idt2/f0df8b16-d8df-480d-89d5-f23f1d740e73/image/816

    Militants linked to the Islamic State group have seized a heavily-defended port in Mozambique after days of fighting, according to reports.

    Local media say government forces that were in the far northern town of Mocimboa da Praia fled, many by boat, after Islamists stormed the port.

    The town is near the site of natural gas projects worth $60bn (£46bn).

    In recent months militants have taken a number of northern towns, displacing tens of thousands of people.

    –-----------

    Avec les décapitations de villages, l’État islamique intensifie les attaques au Mozambique - News 24

    https://news-24.fr/avec-les-decapitations-de-villages-letat-islamique-intensifie-les-attaques-a

    NAIROBI, Kenya – Les militants de l’État islamique, selon plusieurs témoignages, ont frappé la petite communauté agricole sur un plateau dans le nord du Mozambique lors d’un rite d’initiation pour amener les adolescents à devenir virils.

    Armés de machettes, les assaillants ont décapité jusqu’à 20 garçons et hommes dans le village de 24 de Marco, selon un rapport des médias locaux qui confirmé mercredi par ACLED, un groupe américain de surveillance de la crise qui cartographie l’explosion de l’insurrection au Mozambique.

    –-----------------

    Mozambique - Escalation of conflict and violence drive massive displacements and increased humanitarian needs in Cabo Delgado | Digital Situation Reports
    https://reports.unocha.org/en/country/mozambique/card/qXCEhl8yNX
    https://images.ctfassets.net/ejsx83ka8ylz/Z9ojahmui2MxmPMagjmfA/5c75e52ed09bf8c5724c3553183c05a3/WhatsApp_Image_2020-10-26_at_18.53.21.jpeg?w=1024

    Escalation of conflict and violence drive massive displacements and increased humanitarian needs in Cabo Delgado

    The humanitarian situation in Cabo Delgado Province, in northern Mozambique, significantly deteriorated over the last 10 months. The ongoing conflict in the region has escalated in 2020, compounding a fragile situation marked by chronic underdevelopment, consecutive climatic shocks and recurrent disease outbreaks. The increasing number of attacks by non-state armed groups, particularly impacting the northern and eastern districts of the Province, are driving massive and multiple displacements, disrupting people’s livelihoods and access to basic services.

    –-----------------------

    Cabo Ligado Weekly : 2-8 November 2020 | ACLED
    https://acleddata.com/2020/11/10/cabo-ligado-weekly-2-8-november-2020

    The battle for the road between Palma and Mueda continued last week, starting with a 2 November insurgent attack on Pundanhar, Palma district. Several houses were burned in the attack, and five civilians were kidnapped.

    At the same time, insurgents were in the midst of a four-day occupation of Muatide, Muidumbe district. According to a Pinnacle News report, insurgents used Muatide as a base from which they carried out attacks against young men involved in initiation rites. Fifteen boys and five adults from the 24 de Marco village were reported decapitated, and their bodies brought to the soccer field at Muatide. Pinnacle also reported that another 24 youths and six adults from other areas of the district were beheaded during the occupation, and their bodies similarly gathered at Muatide. Pinnacle later reported that many other civilians had been killed at Muatide. There is no confirmed final death toll, and sources can only confirm the targeting of male initiation rites and the initial report of 20 deaths at 24 de Marco.

    #mozambique #is #état_islamique #daesh #djihadisme_international

  • Standing By : Right-Wing Militia Groups & the US Election | ACLED
    https://acleddata.com/2020/10/21/standing-by-militias-election

    Un important rapport publié mi-octobre par le « Projet sur des lieux de conflits armés et les données d’événements » (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project – ACLED), en partenariat avec Hampton Stall de MilitiaWatch, détaille la « convergence » à l’échelle nationale des groupes d’extrême droite à l’approche des élections de 2020.

    Le rapport, intitulé « Sur un pied d’alerte : les milices d’extrême droite et les élections américaines », avertit que ce processus constitue « une menace sérieuse pour la sécurité des électeurs américains. Tout au long de l’été et jusqu’à l’élection générale, ces groupes se sont affirmés, avec des activités qui vont de l’intervention dans les manifestations à l’organisation de complots pour l’enlèvement de personnes élues ».

    In this joint report, ACLED and MilitiaWatch map militia activity across the United States and assess the risk of violence going into the 2020 election. Access data directly through the US Crisis Monitor and check the US methodology brief for more information about coding decisions, definitions, and sourcing.
    Executive Summary

    Militia groups and other armed non-state actors pose a serious threat to the safety and security of American voters. Throughout the summer and leading up to the general election, these groups have become more assertive, with activities ranging from intervening in protests to organizing kidnapping plots targeting elected officials (CNN, 13 October 2020). Both the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Bureau of Investigation have specifically identified extreme far right-wing and racist movements as a primary risk factor heading into November, describing the election as a potential “flashpoint” for reactionary violence (The Nation, 30 September 2020; New York Times, 6 October 2020).

    ACLED collects and analyzes information about the actions of state, non-state, and sole perpetrator1 violence and demonstration activity. MilitiaWatch tracks, documents, and analyzes contemporary US militia movements, and provides reports connecting long-term militia trends to broader political events. ACLED and MilitiaWatch data indicate that right-wing militias have steadily ramped up their activities, and taken on an increasingly outsized profile within the national political environment.

    This joint report reviews the latest data on right-wing militia organizations across the country, identifying the most active groups and mapping the locations most likely to experience heightened militia activity before, during, and after the election.

    Although many US militias can be described as ‘latent’ in that they threaten more violence than they commit, several recently organized militias are associated with a right-wing ideology of extreme violence towards communities opposed to their rhetoric and demands for dominance and control. The lack of open sanctions of these groups from public figures and select local law enforcement has given them space to operate, while concurrently allowing political figures to claim little direct responsibility for violent actions from which they hope to benefit.

    ACLED has tracked the activities of over 80 militias across the US in recent months, the vast majority of which are right-wing armed groups. This report maps a subset of the most active right-wing militias, including ‘mainstream militias,’ which are those that work to align with US law enforcement (the Three Percenters, the Oath Keepers, the Light Foot Militia, the Civilian Defense Force, and the American Contingency); street movements that are highly active in brawls (the Proud Boys, and Patriot Prayer); and highly devolved libertarian groups, which have a history of conflict and are skeptical of state forces (the Boogaloo Bois, and People’s Rights [Bundy Ranch]).

    Analysis of a variety of drivers and barriers to militia activity allows for identification of high-risk locations ahead of the election. These include locations that have seen substantial engagement in anti-coronavirus lockdown protests as well as places where militias might have perceptions of ‘leftist coup’ activities. Spaces where militias have been active in setting up recruitment drives or holding training for members are also at heightened risk, as are spaces where militia members cultivate personal relationships with police or law enforcement or where there might be a friendly attitude by law enforcement towards militia presence or activity. In the context of the upcoming election, swing states are also at heightened risk, in line with scholarship around election violence and unrest being more common in competitive spaces. And lastly, state capitals and ‘periphery’ towns also remain important potential inflection points for violence, especially in more rural and suburban areas that have been particularly conducive to the foundation and regular activities of militia groups. Medium-population cities and suburban areas with centralized zones also serve as locations of major gravitational pull. Barriers to militia activity, meanwhile, can include locations with an overwhelming left-leaning population and/or large populations unsupportive of militias.

    Based on these drivers and barriers, this report finds that capitals and peripheral towns, as well as medium-population cities and suburban areas with centralized zones, in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Oregon are at highest risk of increased militia activity in the election and post-election period, while North Carolina, Texas, Virginia, California, and New Mexico are at moderate risk. Spotlights on each of these states offer a glimpse into recent trends associated with militia activity in each context in recent months.

    Key Conclusions

    There has been a major realignment of militia movements in the US from anti-federal government writ large to mostly supporting one candidate, thereby generally positioning the militia movement alongside a political party. This has resulted in the further entrenchment of a connection between these groups’ identities and politics under the Trump administration, with the intention of preserving and promoting a limited and warped understanding of US history and culture.

    These armed groups engage in hybrid tactics. They train for urban and rural combat while also mixing public relations, propaganda works, and ‘security operations’ via both online and physical social platforms to engage those outside of the militia sphere. There is an increasing narrative and trend that groups are organizing to ‘supplement’ the work of law enforcement or to place themselves in a narrowly defined ‘public protection’ role in parallel with police departments of a given locale.

    Ahead of the election, right-wing militia activity has been dominated by reactions to recent social justice activism like the Black Lives Matter movement, public health restrictions due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, and other perceived threats to the ‘liberty’ and ‘freedoms’ of these groups.

    And right-wing militia groups are often highly competitive with one another, but many have coalesced around this period of heightened political tension, and have even brought Proud Boys and QAnon-linked groups into the fold. While some groups have indicated that they are receptive to calls for deescalation and conflict avoidance, they remain vulnerable to hardline elements that may work clandestinely towards violent action aimed at dominating public space around the election.

    Introduction & Key Trends

    ACLED and MilitiaWatch have identified a major realignment of militia movements in the US from anti-federal government writ large to mostly supporting one candidate, thereby generally positioning the militia movement with a political party. This has resulted in the further entrenchment of a connection between these groups’ identities and politics under the Trump administration, with the intention of preserving and promoting a limited and warped understanding of US history and culture.

    We find that these armed groups engage in hybrid tactics. They train for urban and rural combat while also mixing public relations, propaganda works, and ‘security operations’ via both online and physical social platforms to engage those outside of the militia sphere. There is an increasing narrative and trend that groups are organizing to ‘supplement’ the work of law enforcement or to place themselves in a narrowly defined ‘public protection’ role in parallel with police departments of a given locale.

  • PRESS RELEASE: ACLED Expands Coverage to Latin America and the Caribbean | ACLED
    https://acleddata.com/2020/02/27/press-release-acled-expands-coverage-to-latin-america-and-the-caribbean

    27 February 2020: The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) has now expanded real-time coverage to Latin America and the Caribbean. These new data span more than 40 countries and territories, adding over 40,000 political violence and protest events to the ACLED dataset from the beginning of 2019 to the present.

    Access this press release as a PDF here. Access it in Spanish here.
    Political Violence and Protest in Latin America: 2019

    ACLED records more than 40,000 disorder events in the region
    Over 19,400 are political violence events
    More than 11,500 are civilian targeting events
    Over half of these are reported in Mexico and nearly one fifth in Brazil
    Over 19,500 are demonstration events
    Over four-fifths are peaceful protests without intervention, mainly recorded in Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, and Chile
    ACLED records over 19,000 reported fatalities stemming from disorder last year
    Approximately half are reported in Mexico and one quarter in Brazil
    Nearly a third stem from battles between state forces and non-state armed groups, including gangs, as well as clashes between non-state armed groups
    Civilians in Latin America face high levels of political violence, accounting for at least two-thirds of all fatalities reported across the region in 2019
    More than half of all civilian fatalities are recorded in Mexico and nearly a fifth in Brazil
    The primary perpetrators of violence targeting civilians are anonymous or unidentified armed groups, as well as anonymous or unidentified criminal gangs. Together, these groups are responsible for over half of all civilian fatalities

  • L’ACLED propose un dossier actualisé sur les conflits et révoltes au Moyen-Orient. https://acleddata.com/2020/01/10/regional-overview-middle-east-15-december-2019-4-january-2020 MAJ de l’article Cartes et données de l’ACLED https://cartonumerique.blogspot.com/2019/01/acled.

    Regional Overview: Middle East | 15 December 2019 - 4 January 2020 | Acled Data

    https://www.acleddata.com/2020/01/10/regional-overview-middle-east-15-december-2019-4-january-2020/#

    Over the last three weeks in the Middle East, the assassination of Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad, Iraq was the main escalation in regional tensions and has affected a number of countries. In Syria, fighting continues in the northwest and a number of unidentified attacks occurred against regime sites; these are speculated to have been carried out by Coalition and/or Israeli forces. Meanwhile, in Yemen, the delayed implementation of the ‘Riyadh Agreement’ has resulted in increased fighting and Southern separatists have withdrawn from the implementation committees of the agreement. In Lebanon, Hassan Diab’s nomination as Prime Minister has been met with mixed reception from the general public and has done little to contain the protest movement.

    In Iraq, demonstrations further intensified on 22 December, following another missed deadline for the nomination of a new prime minister. This anger was further compounded by the nomination of a candidate with ties to Iran, who was categorically rejected by the demonstrators (VOA, 23 December 2019). The passing of the new election law and the death of a prominent activist led to increased violence as demonstrators burned down several political party headquarters, particularly targeting those affiliated with Iran. President Barham Salih announced on 26 December that he was ready to resign following pressure to nominate a candidate from the Iran-backed al-Binaa Alliance, the largest bloc in parliament, which brought the country to a political deadlock (Al Monitor, 28 December 2019).

    However, this was soon overshadowed by the escalation of rocket attacks against bases hosting Coalition and US forces. These attacks initially began in early 2019 and were alleged to be launched by Iranian-backed groups, mainly the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and specifically the Kataib Hezbollah (KH). The latest attack hit the K-1 military base that hosts US forces in Kirkuk governorate. It reportedly killed one US contractor and injured several other US and Iraqi personnel. This prompted a retaliatory attack one day later by the US, that targeted three KH targets near the Syrian border, reportedly leaving at least 25 KH fighters dead, including a KH regiment commander and aide to the 45th brigade commander, Abu Ali al-Khazali (Al Monitor, 30 December 2019).

    These attacks further fueled anger on the streets in Iraq, as demonstrators mourned those killed and called for the exclusion of Iraq from any escalation of tensions between the US and Iran. Simultaneously, a demonstration largely made up of angry PMF fighters took place at the US embassy in Baghdad (DW, 31 December, 2019). The two-day demonstration escalated into an attack on the embassy where demonstrators were able to breach the outer wall of the embassy. Embassy guards responded with stun grenades and tear gas to disperse demonstrators.

    On 3 January, the US carried out a strike killing Qasem Soleimani, Iranian Quds forces commander and one of the most powerful figures in Iran, and the PMF’s deputy commander al-Muhandis in Baghdad (The New York Times, 03 January 2020). The US also deployed over 3,000 troops in anticipation of Iran’s response. Iraqis quickly turned their attention to mourning the commanders killed, and some demonstrations saw calls to keep Iraq out of any regional tensions. By the end of the first week of January, the Iraqi parliament had voted to expel US troops from Iraq amidst claims of a new US strike on a PMF target in Taji area near Baghdad, which remains unconfirmed from both sides. This burgeoning outright conflict between Iran and the US could wreak havoc for Iraq, which has already been reeling from demonstrations. Additionally, during this period, the Islamic State (IS) has only grown stronger and has been carrying out systematic attacks against Iraqi forces and civilians, particularly in Kirkuk and Diyala provinces, in addition to bombings in Baghdad. The suspension of Coalition operations could be the perfect opportunity for IS to regroup under the guise of turmoil caused by the tensions between Iran and the US playing out in Iraq.