#sea_level_rise

Global LiDAR land elevation data reveal greatest sea-level rise vulnerability in the tropics | Nature Communications
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23810-9

IMG/distant/png/41467_2021_2eefc.png https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41467-021-23810-9/MediaObjects/41467_2021_23810_Fig4_HTML.png?as=webp https://media.springernature.com/m685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41467-021-23810-9/MediaObjects/41467_2021_23810_Fig1_HTML.png

Coastal flood risk assessments require accurate land elevation data. Those to date existed only for limited parts of the world, which has resulted in high uncertainty in projections of land area at risk of sea-level rise (SLR). Here we have applied the first global elevation model derived from satellite LiDAR data. We find that of the worldwide land area less than 2 m above mean sea level, that is most vulnerable to SLR, 649,000 km2 or 62% is in the tropics. Even assuming a low-end relative SLR of 1 m by 2100 and a stable lowland population number and distribution, the 2020 population of 267 million on such land would increase to at least 410 million of which 72% in the tropics and 59% in tropical Asia alone. We conclude that the burden of current coastal flood risk and future SLR falls disproportionally on tropical regions, especially in Asia.

#climat #mer #élévation_du_niveau_marin #sea_level_rise

300 millions de personnes menacées par la montée des océans d’ici 2050
Reporterre, le 30 octobre 2019
▻https://reporterre.net/300-millions-de-personnes-menacees-par-la-montee-des-oceans-d-ici-2050

https://reporterre.net/local/cache-vignettes/L708xH500/arton18952-684dd.png?1572426033

Article faisant suite à la publication de cette étude de #Climate_Central :

New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding
Scott A. Kulp & Benjamin H. Strauss
Nature Communications 10:4844 (2019)
►https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z
►https://coastal.climatecentral.org

Relaté aussi en anglais ici :

Rising Seas Will Erase More Cities by 2050, New Research Shows
Denise Lu and Christopher Flavelle, The New-York Times, le 29 octobre 2019
►https://seenthis.net/messages/808516

Et encore cette étude me semble très prudente avec une montée des eaux de 30cm en 2050, alors que je crois me souvenir d’avoir vu ici des prévisions qui allaient de 2 à 9m de montée des eaux, avec une magnifique cartographie pour l’#Asie :

Going Under : How sea level rise is threatening to sink major Asian cities
Rayson Lau, Kontinentalist, le 29 juillet 2019
►https://seenthis.net/messages/794934

#eau #océans #cartographie #climat

On l’ajoute à la troisième compilation :
►https://seenthis.net/messages/680147

#effondrement #collapsologie #catastrophe #fin_du_monde #it_has_begun #Anthropocène #capitalocène

Rising Seas Will Erase More Cities by 2050, New Research Shows - The New York Times
▻https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/29/climate/coastal-cities-underwater.html

https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2019/10/24/coastal-flood-levels/0a37c080f43cacf4d754da0bc00e618c0824f45b/alexandria-Artboard_7.jpg

Rising Seas Will Erase More Cities by 2050, New Research Shows

By Denise Lu and Christopher FlavelleOct. 29, 2019

Rising seas could affect three times more people by 2050 than previously thought, according to new research, threatening to all but erase some of the world’s great coastal cities.

The authors of a paper published Tuesday developed a more accurate way of calculating land elevation based on satellite readings, a standard way of estimating the effects of sea level rise over large areas, and found that the previous numbers were far too optimistic. The new research shows that some 150 million people are now living on land that will be below the high-tide line by midcentury.

#climat #sea_level_rise #cartographie #nyt

Kiribati looks to artificial islands to save nation from rising sea levels - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

▻http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-17/artificial-islands-perhaps-the-only-option-to-save-kiribati/7175688

http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/478950-1x1-700x700.jpg

Kiribati has turned to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to help build artificial islands in an effort to save the low-lying Pacific nation from rising sea levels.
Key points:

Kiribati President says artificial islands perhaps the only option for nation’s future
Engineers from the UAE have been enlisted for technical advice
Majority of Kiribati’s 33 coral atolls are less than six metres above sea level

The country’s outgoing President Anote Tong has told the ABC’s Pacific Beat program that despite global commitments on reducing carbon emissions, “the science continues to indicate that we will continue to go under water within the century”.

#kiribati #pacifique #climat #sea_level_rise #mer #océans

#Océans : la #montée_des_eaux n’a jamais été aussi rapide depuis 3.000 ans

Selon une étude, publiée en début de semaine, réalisée par des charcheurs dont les travaux sont publiés dans les Comptes rendus de l’Académie américaine des sciences (PNAS), le niveau des océans monte plus rapidement depuis le siècle dernier que durant les 3 derniers millénaires.

https://planetevivante.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/da84dd9d98_cop21_l_impact_du_rechauffement_mer.jpg?w=1116&h=882

Why Our Intuition About Sea-Level Rise Is Wrong - Issue 33 : Attraction
▻http://nautil.us/issue/33/attraction/why-our-intuition-about-sea_level-rise-is-wrong

http://static.nautil.us/8411_a3de03cb426b5e36f5c7167b21395323.png

Jerry Mitrovica has been overturning accepted wisdom for decades. A solid Earth geophysicist at Harvard, he studies the internal structure and processes of the Earth, which has implications for fields from climatology to the timing of human migration and even to the search for life on other planets. Early in his career he and colleagues showed that Earth’s tectonic plates not only move from side to side, creating continental drift, but also up and down. By refocusing attention from the horizontal of modern Earth science to the vertical, he helped to found what he has nicknamed postmodern geophysics. Recently Mitrovica has revived and reinvigorated longstanding insights into factors that cause huge geographic variation in sea level, with important implications for the study of climate (...)

New Report and Maps: Rising Seas Threaten Land Home to Half a Billion
November 8, 2015
By Climate Central
▻http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/news/global-mapping-choices

Carbon emissions causing 4°C of warming — what business-as-usual points toward today —- could lock in enough sea level rise to submerge land currently home to 470 to 760 million people, with unstoppable rise unfolding over centuries. At the same time, aggressive carbon cuts limiting warming to 2°C could bring the number as low as 130 million people. These are the stakes for global climate talks December in Paris.

Our analysis details the implications of different warming scenarios for every coastal nation and megacity on the planet, and our globally searchable Mapping Choices tool maps them. We are also publishing Google Earth fly-over videos and KML contrasting these different futures for important cities around the world, and printable high-resolution photorealistic images of select global landmarks. We have made these visualizations embeddable and downloadable. These are the stakes for global climate talks, in pictures.

#climat

China’s Coastal Cities, Underwater - The New York Times

▻http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/12/11/world/asia/Chinas-Coastal-Cities-Underwater.html?_r=4



https://dl.dropbox.com/s/64bi68kp2e7untn/chine%20climat%20shanghai.png?dl=0

China’s Coastal Cities, Underwater

By DEREK WATKINS DEC. 11, 2015

China produces more carbon dioxide emissions than any other country, and its coastal cities will be dramatically affected by rising seas as the atmosphere warms, according to a November report by Climate Central, a nonprofit organization.

Barring large amounts of spending on shoreline barriers and flood control systems, these images show what China would face if carbon emissions cause global temperatures to rise by 2° Celsius (3.6°F), the current international target by 2100, or by 4° Celsius (7.2°F), roughly the warming predicted if no action is taken to curb emissions.

#chine #climat #sea_level_rise

Perth’s double whammy: as sea levels rise the city itself is sinking | Environment | The Guardian

▻http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/22/perths-double-whammy-as-sea-levels-rise-the-city-itself-is-sinking

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/f38e2b31efbc18e577a5231c628d9a2a1260bfe7/0_334_5019_3014/master/5019.jpg?w=700&q=85&auto=format&sharp=10&s=4ac41d6f92d3fee749d3711dd171ccc7

Growing demand for water in Perth has caused the city to sink at up to 6mm a year and could be responsible for an apparent acceleration in the rate of sea level rise, according to new research released by Curtin University.

The study, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research in October, found that the rate of subsidence in Perth increased between 2000 and 2005, at the same time as the Water Corporation of WA increased the amount of water it was drawing from the city’s two main aquifers to meet the demands of a growing population.

#climat #australie #perth #sea_level_rise